The past eighteen months have been enlightening in so many ways, and one of those has to be the way that future predictions are rarely based on anything more reliable than guesswork. For sure, some of this guesswork is more accurate and more educated than other cases, but it’s worth remembering how many expensively-advised businesses and even governments thought that the worst was over this time last year. The truth is, we can’t rely too much on predictions, because there is always the danger of unforeseen circumstances.
This is important for anyone who is considering launching a business in the next eighteen months. Many of us will be holding fire because we are waiting for a vital stage to be reached – but things can change so suddenly that, even if you plan perfectly for that moment, the goalposts can move at exceptionally short notice. So if you’re working on a business idea, the best idea is not to work future predictions into it – it’s to make sure that it doesn’t rely on future predictions.
What Does That Mean?
There are some things we know: vaccines have meant that the link between high case numbers and hospitalizations or deaths from the virus has been weakened. New variants of the virus have demonstrated the ability to affect even those who are vaccinated, but are less likely to make people gravely ill. The things we don’t know are split into open questions, and questions we haven’t even considered – but an example of an open question would be “Is there a chance that by reopening, we could cause a new variant to arise that more effectively escapes the vaccine?”. The answer to that question remains to be seen, and could mean that we see more quarantining and more remote working in our future.
How Does That Affect a New Business?
If you’ve got a business plan that relies on everything opening up and staying open, you might have a future date in mind – but that future date may have to be delayed. And as we’ve seen, a day we expected to be imminent might end up not arriving for more than a year. So it’s worth thinking about how you can tweak the plan so that it doesn’t matter how things change. If you’re looking at a wellness business, maybe now’s the time to call Omniblend and start production of supplements or meal plans. Maybe you can look at adding a gym-based element to the plan later, but going ahead with what you can now.
What Harm Can Waiting Do?
Well, as we have seen, the intrusion of unforeseen circumstances can make old data obsolete. We can speak with some confidence about the future, but when that future comes, will your idea be what people want? It is clear that some aspects of business are going to do very well whether the pandemic ends tomorrow or is with us for years to come – so planning around those aspects is the most reliable way of benefiting in the short and long term future.
